2026 British Open: Who will win the Open Championship at Birkdale?

Rory McIlroy won the Masters. Aaron Rai claimed the PGA Championship. Wyndham Clark triumphed at the U.S. Open. And now, at the season’s final and oldest major, Royal Birkdale awaits its Champion Golfer of the Year. The 2026 Open Championship is the only one of the four majors that has so far lacked a clear dominant force. The season has belonged to many—and that’s exactly what makes the British Open so hard to predict.

The Genesis Scottish Open in North Berwick served as a dress rehearsal, ending with a bang last weekend: Tom Kim left the field in the dust with a final round of 64 and won at –17. But what did the Scottish Open reveal about the actual Open favorites? Quite a bit—and not all of it is reassuring.

In this favorites roundup, we take a closer look at the five hottest contenders for the Claret Jug—and highlight three other players who should by no means be underestimated.

Find the 2026 Open Championship live leaderboard here.

The Top Five Favorites for the 2026 Open Championship

Rory McIlroy – The Hungry One

Since his triumph at the 2025 Masters, Rory McIlroy has completed the Career Grand Slam. You’d think that would take the pressure off. The opposite seems to be true. The 37-year-old Northern Irishman appears more focused than ever—as if fulfilling his big dream has led not to relaxation, but to a renewed focus on the next chapter.

The Open Championship is McIlroy’s tournament. Three top-10 finishes in the last four editions, a victory in 2014 at Hoylake—the course located just a few kilometers from Royal Birkdale. The conditions, the winds, the links-style course: all of this is in the Northern Irishman’s DNA. He is the only player in the field to have both the Silver Medal—awarded to the top amateur at St. Andrews in 2005—and the Claret Jug in his trophy case.

The Scottish Open recently confirmed what many had suspected: McIlroy’s form is peaking at just the right time. After a weak third round (73), he fought his way back to a tie for seventh place with a strong final round (64). What was concerning was not so much the score as a technical flaw he openly acknowledged himself: in left-to-right winds, his iron play tends to pull the shots to the left—a quirk he plans to specifically work on in the days leading up to the Open Championship.

If McIlroy can get a handle on that, he’ll be the most dangerous player in the field.

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Tommy Fleetwood – The Home Game

There are stories in sports that are practically begging to be dramatic. Tommy Fleetwood and Royal Birkdale is one of them. The Englishman grew up in Southport—literally within sight of the course where the most important tournament of his life begins on Thursday. No other player in the field carries the burden and privilege of this connection.

In 2017, at the last Open at Birkdale, Fleetwood opened with a 76—the pressure of playing on home turf was palpable. He found his footing and rebounded with a strong third round (66), but the train had already left the station. Nine years later, he’s a different player. More mature, more experienced, and possessing a consistency that makes him one of the most reliable scorers on the PGA Tour. Five top-20 finishes in his last six starts speak for themselves.

At the Scottish Open, he delivered a solid, if not outstanding, result: a tie for 13th place at –9. No fireworks—but a calm, controlled performance from a player who knows that the real test is yet to come.

The crowd in Southport will be behind him. Whether that’s a curse or a blessing will be revealed on the Fairways among the dunes.

Xander Schauffele – The Major Specialist

Over the past two years, Xander Schauffele has proven that he is not a player to be written off just because of a slump. The American won the 2024 Open Championship at Royal Troon and defended his title last year at Royal Portrush with a tie for seventh place. Anyone who finishes in the top 10 at the British Open two years in a row understands links golf.

His stats for the current season are impressive: a top-10 finish at the Masters (T9), a top-10 finish at the PGA Championship (T7)—only at the U.S. Open did he disappoint with a tie for 11th place. He missed the cut at the Scottish Open (69-74), which seems concerning at first glance. But anyone familiar with Schauffele’s career knows this: the man from San Diego has a remarkable ability to step up when it counts.

No player in the field has a more consistent major record this year. And no one has gotten to know the Claret Jug better than he has over the past two years.

Scottie Scheffler – The Dark Horse

It’s the talk of the week: Scottie Scheffler—world No. 1, defending champion, and the most reliable player of his generation—missed the cut at the Scottish Open. Rounds of 68 and 72 weren’t enough. It was his first missed weekend after making 78 consecutive cuts—his last missed cut was in August 2022.

That’s a remarkable statistic, and it makes the slip-up in North Berwick more than just a statistical footnote. Scheffler didn’t look like a player in top form during those two rounds. The question is legitimate: Is this a temporary slump or a warning sign?

History suggests the answer is: Scheffler will bounce back. His 2025 victory at Royal Portrush was a masterpiece—four rounds under 70, –17 overall, and a four-stroke lead. He has proven that he masters links golf, that he can handle pressure, and that at Royal Birkdale he’ll find a course that plays to his strengths. At the same time, he would be the first player since Pádraig Harrington in 2007–2008 to successfully defend the Open Championship.

Missing the cut in the dress rehearsal is a warning sign. Still, the world No. 1 shouldn’t be written off just yet.

Viktor Hovland – The Rising Star

If you want to sum up Viktor Hovland’s season in one number, choose 21. That was his score at the Travelers Championship—21 under par, victory, done. It was one of the most dominant performances of the year on the PGA Tour. Add to that a third-place finish at the RBC Canadian Open (–14) just two weeks earlier. When he’s on a roll, the Norwegian is one of the best ball-strikers in the world.

The problem: That momentum has been unpredictable this season. Missed cuts at the Valspar Championship, the PGA Championship, and the U.S. Open show that Hovland’s form has steeper downturns than that of his competitors. And his record on links courses is modest: His best Open result is a tie for fourth place at St. Andrews in 2022.

But the Scottish Open gives cause for optimism. Despite a mediocre third round (69), Hovland closed out the dress rehearsal with a strong final round of 64 and finished tied for 13th place. Anyone who shoots a 64 in the final round at North Berwick is in good shape for links golf.

If the Norwegian has maintained the form he showed at the Travelers, a first major title at Royal Birkdale is not out of the question.

Three others not to be overlooked

Justin Rose – Birkdale’s favorite son

If there’s one player whose fate seems intertwined with Royal Birkdale, it’s Justin Rose. In 1998, as a very young amateur, he chipped in on the 72nd hole to finish tied for fourth place—a moment that has become part of British golfing lore. The Silver Medal was his first big moment on the world stage.

Since then, Rose has finished second at the Open twice (2018, 2024)—he has yet to lift the Claret Jug. At 45, Royal Birkdale could be his last realistic chance at this title. And anyone who saw his performance at the 2026 Masters knows: Rose is far from done competing at the top level in majors.

Wyndham Clark – The Double-Win Hunter

Wyndham Clark won this year’s U.S. Open at Shinnecock Hills wire-to-wire—leading from the first round to the last. That’s one of the toughest ways to win a major, and it speaks to his mental strength. Add to that a tie for fourth place at the last Open at Royal Portrush.

At the Scottish Open, he finished tied for 13th (-9)—solid, but not dominant. The major historical hurdle: Back-to-back majors are extremely rare. The last player to achieve this was Jordan Spieth in 2015 with the Masters and the U.S. Open. Statistically, that works against Clark, but his current form works in his favor.

Cameron Smith – The LIV Wild Card

Cameron Smith is the reigning Open champion from 2022—his victory at St. Andrews with a score of –20 ranks among the best performances in recent tournament history. Since then, things have been quiet around the Australian, marked by his decision to join LIV Golf and a stretch without major successes.

But the signs of a comeback are mounting. A tie for seventh place at the 2026 PGA Championship was his best major result since his triumph. Smith is a natural links player. When his Putter is on—and he can be among the best putters in the world—he’s a threat to anyone.

Editor’s Assessment

Royal Birkdale demands creativity, a feel for the wind, and strong nerves. It’s not a course for perfectionists, but for players who can handle imperfection.

Our Pick: Rory McIlroy. He’s in good form, his aptitude for links courses is undisputed, and the mental state of a player who has already fulfilled his biggest dream and can now play with ease should not be underestimated. Birkdale suits him—and if he can get a handle on his wind issues, he’s the most well-rounded player for this course.

As a dark horse for a solid prize-money finish: Viktor Hovland. Anyone who shoots a final round of 64 in the dress rehearsal won’t be heading to Southport without confidence.

For complete tournament information, the field of competitors, prize money, and broadcast times for the 2026 British Open Championship, see our tournament preview for the 2026 Open Championship.